#13 Michigan Wolverines Preview

By: Matt Fargo

Fall camps are under way and the regular season will be here soon so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#13 – Michigan Wolverines 7-5 SU; 5-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take Michigan had a very disappointing 2005 season at least according to Michigan standards. The Wolverines were decimated by injuries on offense yet all of their losses were by a touchdown or less but that included three home losses. Showing how rare that is, Michigan had lost a total of three games combined in the previous six years in the Big House so last year can definitely be considered an aberration. The offense finished 45th in scoring and 55th overall but with a healthy group that returns the majority of its skill players, the Wolverines should be poised to rebound. The defense was decent but not dominating and that could change in 2006. National Championship aspirations are abundant in Ann Arbor every season and this year is no different but a very tough schedule is standing in the way. Expect Michigan to be in the Big Ten race with an outside shot of a BSC title if it can pull off some upsets along the way.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Junior quarterback Chad Henne had a sensational sophomore season and he is on pace to become the most prolific signal caller in Michigan history. He threw for 2,536 yards and 23 touchdowns while tossing just eight interceptions and this was accomplished with hardly any running game behind him. Mike Hart, who gained 1,455 yards as a true freshman in 2004 was hampered by hamstring and ankle injuries for the second half of the year and missed four games. If he stays healthy, he is one of the best back in the Big Ten. The offensive line needs to replace three starters but there is plenty of experience and depth on the unit. Big time playmaker Jason Avant is gone at receiver but the return of Steve Breaston and Mario Manningham provides Henne with two solid options at wideout. Depth at quarterback is the big concern if Henne goes down.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 This is a very experienced unit and one that should vastly improve upon its 36th ranking in total defense from a season ago. First and foremost, the defense has to find a way to apply pressure on the quarterback as the Wolverines generated only 24 sacks last season. New defensive coordinator Ron English brings in a lot more enthusiasm and intensity to the defense, something that has been lacking. The secondary is the best in the conference led by five safeties who could all be starters. The return of Ryan Mundy is a big bonus. The corners will be led by All-Big Ten senior Leon Hall. The linebackers have the potential for a breakout season but underachieving has been a big issue with the unit. The defensive line has LaMarr Woodley at end and Alan Branch at tackle, two of the best in the conference. A repeat of a 10th ranking in the conference in redzone defense last season will not sit well.

Schedule This is where the Wolverines need to step things up and show they belong with the nation’s elite. Two easy wins against Vanderbilt and Central Michigan will start the year and then it’s a huge game at Notre Dame that will go a long way for both teams. The Big Ten schedule starts out with a tough home contest against Wisconsin followed by a game at Minnesota. Hosting an improved Michigan St. team will be a challenge and then it’s off to Penn St. followed by another tough home game against Iowa. Northwestern, Ball St. and Indiana will be three easy wins and then the season finale at Ohio St. could be one of the biggest and best meetings in recent memory. There are four potential losses on the slate with three of those being on the road.

You can bet on… Head coach Lloyd Carr is feeling the heat after last year’s disappointing campaign and another down season could be costly. Both coordinators were replaced and with a number of players coming back from injury, things should turn around but the difficult schedule does not help matters. Nevertheless, getting to a bowl game for the 31st straight year will not be a problem. Carr has lost four of five to Ohio St. and another defeat against the Buckeyes could show him the door since that counts almost as much as contending in the Big Ten. Michigan is usually laying the number but it is 6-2 ATS as a road dog since 1999 and it will be getting points in at least two games this year. The first one will be against Notre Dame and that benefits the Wolverines as the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

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Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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