#68 Oklahoma St. Cowboys Preview

By: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#68 – Oklahoma St. Cowboys 4-7 SU; 3-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take The Mike Gundy no huddle offense hit a lot of snags in its first year of inception but that was to be expected. With a season in the books, the Cowboys should be more efficient on offense and they really have no where to go but up. The offense is extremely young still with just two senior starters so we might be looking at 2007 as the year for the ultimate breakthrough. After a promising 3-0 start last year thanks to a cupcake schedule, Oklahoma St. dropped seven of its final eight games with only two of those defeats being competitive games. The youth showed in the game against Texas as they had a 19-point lead only to lose by that same amount. The defense was just as bad as the offense and with only five starters returning, there isn’t much hope of a huge revitalization. A soft slate will lead to a similar start as last year but a similar ending to the season is possible as well.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 It’s hard to become cohesive on offense when three different quarterbacks are leading the team. That was the case in Stillwater in 2005 as youth and injuries to the quarterbacks hurt the offense. Sophomore Bobby Reid did not put up huge numbers as a freshman but he is the likely starter by default. Word is that he has a renewed confidence but his spring practices did not show a whole lot. He does have some great talent around him led by receiver D’Juan Woods, a consensus preseason All-Big XII pick. Woods will have help on the other side from North Carolina transfer Adarius Bowman. The running game is in good shape with sophomore Mike Hamilton, who gained 961 yards on 5.0 ypc as a freshman. The offensive line is fairly experienced and small but that is a good fit with this offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The Cowboys finished 95th in both total defense and scoring defense and most of that damage came after the first three cupcake games. The defense yielded 31.3 ppg on the season but that jumped to 40.1 ppg in the final eight games as it allowed fewer than 34 points only once. Like the offense, the defense is extremely young with only three senior starters and only five seniors on the two-deep chart. The rushing defense was horrid last season, allowing 205.4 ypg on 4.9 ypc and the defensive line is where all three seniors are located. If those rushing numbers don’t get better, the unit could take another huge step backwards. The linebackers and secondary are very raw with the only returning starter being strong safety Donovan Woods, a converted quarterback from last season.

Schedule As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys will likely be 3-0 once again this season with games against Missouri St., Arkansas St. and Florida Atlantic starting off the year. From there, things could get ugly starting with three straight road games at Houston, Kansas St. and Kansas. The worst part is that those are all likely losses yet are the three remaining easy road games on the schedule. Five of the last six games are against teams that will be contending in their respective divisions in the Big XII with a much improved Baylor team being the other contest. The game against the Bears is at home and is the only swing game in the final eight meaning a 4-8 record is likely unless there are upsets along the way.

You can bet on… Former head coach Les Miles left the cupboard pretty bare for Gundy and he is doing his best to get things headed in the right direction. This was one of the youngest teams in the country last year and the Cowboys are ranked 88th in experience ratings this season. Give them one more year and we could see a resurgence. Oklahoma St. went 0-4 ATS as a road dog last season and is now 8-20 against the number when receiving points on the road. The Cowboys will be in that role in five of their six away games this season, the game at Arkansas St. being the lone exception. With such a youthful team, winning on the road is near impossible while keeping those games close is nearly as difficult.

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Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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