#79 New Mexico Lobos Preview

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#79 – New Mexico Lobos 6-5 SU; 4-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take Even though New Mexico finished with a winning record for the fifth straight season a year ago, the Lobos essentially took a small step backwards. They missed out on a bowl game for the first time in four years and the defense, the backbone of the program under head coach Rocky Long, allowed the most amount of points in his nine-year tenure. Changes were made in the offseason to the coaching staff and the schemes that will be employed in 2006. Even though New Mexico increased its offensive scoring average by 9.6 ppg from the previous season, Long brought in new offensive coordinator Bob Toledo to implement the West Coast offense. With all-time leading rusher DonTrell Moore departed, the rushing offense will likely no longer be the first option and we should see the Lobos airing the ball out more. New Mexico will need to try and find a replacement for Moore, not necessarily putting up the same numbers but just getting enough production to keep the opposing defenses honest.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The switch to the West Coast offense will certainly help the Lobos in the absence of Moore and it will play to the team’s strengths. Senior quarterback Kole McKamey will be starting for the third straight season and while a new scheme can be tough to throw in, he should be able to adjust well. He did lose his top receiver from a season ago but Travis Brown and Marcus Smith provide a potent one-two punch. The offensive line, like every other year is enormous, coming in at an average of 319 pounds. The biggest question mark however is at tailback as the leading returning ground gainer is McKamey. There is a huge amount of optimism for Martelius Epps, a converted cornerback who owns the all-time New Mexico vertical jump record and runs a 4.3 40. The Lobos were 40th in the country in scoring offense and 43rd in total offense last season and we should expect bigger things this year.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 The defense was extremely inconsistent last year and the 29.7 ppg allowed was 11 points per game higher than what it allowed in 2004. Changes have been made from the coaches to the playbook to the schemes and all should benefit greatly. The playbook will be simplified which will allow the unit to be more aggressive, similar to successful previous campaigns. This will be a smallish defense that will rely on speed and that is why a second ‘rover’ has been added to the mix. The passing defense finished 93rd in the country last season and must replace both corners so things might not be getting much better in the secondary. The whole defensive line needs to be replaced as well and after allowing the most yards per carry in six years, the Lobos might have their work cut out for them once again.

Schedule New Mexico has seven home games on the schedule this season but after finishing 2-3 at University Stadium last season, that might not be such an advantage after all. The Lobos don’t have to leave the state until the fifth game of the season as they have three non-conference games at home and a road game at rival New Mexico St. Two of those home contests are against Missouri and UTEP, two very tough squads. Once the MWC slate kicks in, things don’t get much worse. The Lobos alternate home and road games the rest of the way and the two toughest games against Utah and TCU are both at home. The problem is that the four-game stretch beginning with the Utes is a stretch of playing the top four teams in the conference. A split of those four games would be considered a huge victory.

You can bet on… With all of the new things implemented at New Mexico, it is going to be very tough to gauge this team early on. There are going to be numerous changes on both sides of the ball as well as on the sidelines so the best bet is to steer clear of the Lobos for the first couple games. This team was horrible against the number last year, finishing with a losing ATS record for the first time in eight years. The Lobos did not cover a single game at home and are now 2-7 ATS at home over the last two seasons. Their first lined home game will be against Missouri, a team that should be better this year and will be looking for some revenge after New Mexico won in Columbia last year by 10 points. Even though it’s early, this game could go a long way in determining what type of season the Lobos can expect.

Article Source: http://www.content.onlypunjab.com

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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