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Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited's ("Aspen") (NYSE:AHL) (BSX:AHL BH) Group Chief Executive Officer, Chris O'Kane, commented today on Aspen's initial outlook for 2007. Mr. O’Kane is expected to speak at the Credit Suisse Insurance Conference on November 16, 2006, and is expected to address this topic during the presentation. The information provided below includes forward-looking statements and is based on current business conditions. To the extent that the business written varies from the levels indicated in this outlook, Aspen's results will vary accordingly. Additionally, the indicated outlook may change based on the factors described in the forward-looking information section found below. Mr. O’Kane, said: “While we expect market conditions to remain generally attractive in 2007 we anticipate that rates will decline in certain of our product lines. We therefore expect gross written premiums to be approximately $1.9 billion plus or minus 5%. We are also planning to reduce significantly the amount of retrocession we purchase and therefore currently expect to cede only between 6%-10% of our gross written premiums. “We expect the reduction in our retrocessional expense and a number of other changes in our underwriting portfolio to result in an improvement in our net underwriting margins. We currently expect that our combined ratio will be in the range of 83% to 88% assuming no major losses or prior year reserve movements. “Investment income should continue to rise and, in a somewhat uncertain interest rate environment, we currently expect it to be within the range of $230 million to $250 million. “Interest charges and preference dividend payments will increase as a result of the current proposed offering of perpetual preference shares but the proposed use of proceeds to repurchase ordinary shares will result in higher pro forma return on equity and earnings per share. “Based on the expected distribution of income between our operating companies our tax rate for 2007 should be within the range of 16% to 19%. “Based on the above outlook and assumptions for 2007, the implied return on equity for 2007 would be between 16%-20%.” About Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited was established in June 2002. Aspen is a Bermudian holding company that provides property and casualty reinsurance in the global market, property and liability insurance principally in the United Kingdom and the United States and specialty insurance and reinsurance consisting mainly of marine and energy and aviation worldwide. Aspen’s operations are conducted through its wholly-owned subsidiaries located in London, Bermuda and the United States: Aspen Insurance UK Limited, Aspen Insurance Limited and Aspen Specialty Insurance Company. Aspen has four operating segments: property reinsurance, casualty reinsurance, specialty insurance and reinsurance and property and casualty insurance. Aspen’s principal existing founding shareholders include The Blackstone Group, Candover Partners Limited and Credit Suisse First Boston Private Equity. For more information about Aspen, please visit the Company’s website at www.aspen.bm. Application of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 This press release contains written, and Aspen’s officers may make related oral, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws regarding Aspen's initial outlook for certain operating results for 2007, the possible repurchase of Aspen’s ordinary shares and the financing of any such repurchases. These statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts, and can be identified by the use of words such as “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “project,” “anticipate,” “seek,” “will,” “estimate,” “may,” “continue,” and similar expressions of a future or forward-looking nature. All forward-looking statements rely on a number of assumptions, estimates and data concerning future results and events and are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside Aspen’s control that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Aspen believes these factors include, but are not limited to: the number and type of insurance and reinsurance contracts that we write at the January 1st and other renewal periods in 2007; the premium rates available at the time of such renewals within our targeted business lines; the absence of large or unusually frequent loss events; the impact that our future operating results, capital position and rating agency and other considerations have on the execution of any capital management initiatives; the impact of any capital management activities on our financial condition; the impact of acts of terrorism and related legislation and acts of war; the possibility of greater frequency or severity of claims and loss activity, including as a result of natural or man-made catastrophic events such as Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, than our underwriting, reserving or investment practices have anticipated; evolving interpretive issues with respect to coverage as a result of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma; the level of inflation in repair costs due to limited availability of labor and materials after catastrophes; the effectiveness of Aspen's loss limitation methods; changes in the availability, cost or quality of reinsurance or retrocessional coverage; the reliability of, and changes in assumptions to, catastrophe pricing, accumulation and estimated loss models; loss of key personnel; a decline in our operating subsidiaries' ratings with Standard & Poor's, A.M. Best Company or Moody's Investors Service; changes in general economic conditions including inflation, foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and other factors that could affect our investment portfolio; increased competition on the basis of pricing, capacity, coverage terms or other factors; decreased demand for Aspen’s insurance or reinsurance products and cyclical downturn of the industry; changes in governmental regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where Aspen conducts business; Aspen or its Bermudian subsidiary becoming subject to income taxes in the United States or the United Kingdom; the effect on insurance markets, business practices and relationships of ongoing litigation, investigations and regulatory activity by the New York State Attorney General's office and other authorities concerning contingent commission arrangements with brokers and bid solicitation activities; the total industry losses resulting from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma and the actual number of Aspen's insureds incurring losses from these storms; and with respect to Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, Aspen’s reliance on loss reports received from cedants and loss adjustors, Aspen's reliance on industry loss estimates and those generated by modeling techniques, the impact of these storms on Aspen's reinsurers, any changes in Aspen's reinsurers' credit quality, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables and reimbursements actually received by Aspen from its reinsurers and the overall level of competition and the related demand and supply dynamics as contracts come up for renewal. Any ordinary share repurchases by Aspen are subject to rating agency considerations, the market price of its ordinary shares, Aspen’s ongoing sources and uses of cash and the liquidity requirements of its insurance and reinsurance business. Any issuance by Aspen of any perpetual preference shares or other security is subject to market conditions for such security, the satisfactory agreement with any underwriters or other purchasers in relation to the terms and price of such security and customary conditions to the completion of any such financing transaction. For a more detailed description of additional uncertainties and other factors that could impact the forward-looking statements in this release, please see the “Risk Factors” section in Aspen’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 6, 2006.
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