Is The Market Ready To Be Steady or To Drop?

Recently, The Dow flirted with record setting levels, signaling either that there is continuing life in a bull market that began years ago, or we’re experiencing a sucker’s rally that is a precursor to a rough patch to come.

So, which is it?

There is nothing fundamental that seems to be supporting higher price levels. After ratcheting up interest rates again and again, the Fed has stopped, at least temporarily, lending some predictability to capital markets and stability to stock prices.

Core inflation isn’t much of a problem, consumer sentiment is fairly strong, oil prices have retreated, and the alleged tanking real estate market seems to be keeping its head above water better than was expected.

But these trends would argue for a sideways market, not an upward surge.

If real estate isn’t a viable or seemingly hospitable investment alternative and you can buy equities that will spin-off dividends that rival some bonds, where else can you get the same return on your money, and have a shot at price appreciation, too?

I think this “No better place to turn” logic is informing the strong Dow, at least at the moment.

But nothing lasts forever.

If the Democrats gain substantial ground in the forthcoming elections, this could be, if not a tipping point a dipping point for the Dow. Fearful of a tax-and-spend Congress, some money might be pulled out of the market and parked on the sidelines, in anticipation of a new round of inflation, or worse, stagflation.

Better real returns might be garnered overseas, as well, taking some of the ballast out of current price levels.

A significant natural or man-made catastrophe could also cause a price shock. Before you think this is a remote possibility, look back during the past 5 years, post 9-11, and you’ll see enough major dislocations to make you expect the next one to occur within 12 months, or less.

The mere possibility of a mega-event, like a Katrina or a significant act of terror or war is enough to induce some forward-looking investors to see a record setting Dow as a time to start taking money off the table.

How high is up? Can the Dow keep trending upwards?

It could, but not for long, as I see it.

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Best-selling author of 12 books and more than 850 articles, Dr. Gary S. Goodman is considered "The Gold Standard"--the foremost expert in sales development, customer service, and telephone effectiveness. Top-rated as a speaker, seminar leader, and consultant, his clients extend across the globe and the organizational spectrum, from the Fortune 1000 to small businesses. He can be reached at: gary@customersatisfaction.com.

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