Tournament Play Betting Angles: DEFENSE!

By: Lenny Del Genio

March Madness may be just around the corner, but the madness has already begun with tournament play tipping off. Handicappers will be analyzing regular season stats, among other things, in their daily matchup analysis, but keep in mind one thing that might not show up based on regular season numbers: Defense.

Defense still wins championships and over the next few weeks college basketball teams will be fighting it out for conference tournament titles, followed by (hopefully) invitations to the Big Dance or NIT. Defense can take a night or two off during the regular season. Maybe a team is blowing out a weaker opponent and the coach lets the kids run and score in the second half, not asking for all-out defensive intensity. Or, maybe he rests some top players who normally provide rebounding and defensive muscle. These things can skew offensive numbers a bit, but remember that situations like that are less likely to occur in tournament play where the games mean so much.

Think about the Colts recent run to the Super Bowl. The Colts offense was productive, as was expected, even with QB Peyton Manning throwing three TDs and 6 picks in the first three games. But it was the Colts vastly improved defense that was the difference, dominating the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bears, and turning the tide in the second half of the AFC Championship game against the Patriots (13 points allowed).

Why did the Miami Heat win the NBA title last year? Take a close look at their playoff run: Allowing only 100 points once in their final 12 postseason games (and that one time was in overtime, 100 points, to Dallas). Miami went 10-2 under the total during that run, a boon for sports bettors who saw the defensive trend develop.

In fact, I’ve been in the business on both sides of the counter and totals are easier to handicap. Check out line movement on some basketball games going on this week and you’re most likely to find totals moving far more than sides.

This week I gave out Syracuse as a home dog against Georgetown. One thing that impressed me was the defensive front, which I noted in my analysis, “Syracuse has a very good frontcourt with the 6-8 Nichols being joined by the 6-9 Roberts and 6-11 center Watkins.”

It appeared to me the Orange had the defensive capability up front to battle the Hoyas nose to nose (actually, elbow to elbow). Syracuse not only covered but won the game allowing 58 points. Even though it wasn’t a tournament game, it sailed under the total, providing a good example of how defensive intensity can increase this time of the season.

In addition, since tournament games mean more, coaches not only stress defense but many times they prefer to slow the game down rather than let it fly in an attempt to milk the clock or preserve a lead. All of these factors can add up to lower scoring games.

On the way to the national title a year ago, Florida went 6-1 under the total its final seven games. The Gators allowed 64 points per game during the regular season, yet in their final 7 tournament games (including the SEC tourney and the Big Dance) the Gators allowed 47, 50, 60, 53, 62, 58 and 57 points – every game below their season average!

So examine those regular season stats and earlier meetings between the same teams that will be facing each other in tournament action over the next few weeks. But be careful with totals: Regular season offensive numbers need to be approached with caution, as defensive intensity can rise to much higher levels this time of the year, which can mean an increase in games going under the total.

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Lenny Del Genio is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Lenny_Del_Genio.htm

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