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WELCOME & CONTENTS--------------------Hello again, and welcome back to your fortnightly newsletter from the offices of TrainerTrackStats. Having enjoyed a (very) extended festive break (actually I've been working on another project, but more of that in due course), I'm pleased to be back with more news and views from the world of jumps racing.In this issue:- Review since last newsletter- System angle: "Grand National Early Bird Preview"- Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats- The TTS Joke- Tomorrow's qualifiers------------------------------REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER------------------------------I'm delighted to report that after a period in the doldrums, where we seemed to have more seconds than Billy Bunter, TTS is now well and truly back among the winners.Since I wrote to you, much has happened in the main trial events to shake up the markets, and yet - to these eyes, at least - things are pretty much as they wereLast time, I gave a big shout for a horse called Exotic Dancer (you can see what I said in this section of newsletter 7 at www.TrainerTrackStats.com/newsletters)I don't mind sharing with you that I have a whopping £13.46 on him to win the Gold Cup. Perhaps more interesting is the odds I have, which are 84.66/1. What did we ever do before Betfair?!!Now I know this is gloating before the event and that bet is worth nothing (or what I can lay it off at, at least), but I strongly fancy him to beat Kauto Star in March.He wasn't beaten far by that rival at Kempton on a track that I mentioned last time wouldn't suit, and over the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham last time he put to bed any doubts about his stamina, waltzing through in customary fashion to thrash some proven stayers in Old Vic and Halcon Genelardais (a Welsh National winner!).To be honest, I don't know where the stamina doubts came from. I mean, he'd won pretty much in a canter of 3 miles in the Paddy Power for Heaven's sake.I'm not sure about the Irish this year, and they'd have to be feared, but I reckon a safe conveyance is pretty much assured from Exotic Dancer (and I bet Kauto at Cheltenham last year, when he fell) and I can't see him out of the frame.Incidentally, before I finally nail the coffin of Exotic Dancer's Gold Cup chance, I have him for a place at just over 8/1 too!Elsewhere, the Champion Hurdle looks like being one of the best renewals for many a long year. There are any number of pretenders looking to step up to the plate and, despite my naysaying about Detroit City, he continues to perform. As importantly, the form of the race I cribbed as a graveyard for Champion Hurdle hopefuls (previous year's Triumph Hurdle) looks rock solid with Blazing Bailey and others boosting it.However, this race has been farmed in recent years by the Irish, and I expect to go across the sea once more. I'm just not sure with which horse!My heart says Hardy Eustace (or Hardly Useless, as I unkindly refer to him), as he was half of my biggest ever win when he won the Champion and Kicking King won the Gold Cup a couple of years ago.But, strictly on form, its hard to ignore the run of Macs Joy, who finished a close up third behind Hardy and the well backed Brave Inca. Macs wasn't beaten far in the Champion last year, and looks to be the improver I'd want to be on. But, like I say, its a mouth watering race for sure.Finally, in my Cheltenham fancies piece, I want to give a mention to a horse trained by a guy I flagged in TTS as a man to definitely follow, Alan King. The horse is called Katchit, and he's an absolute star.He will win the Triumph Hurdle. If you know your racing, you'll knoW what an outlandish statement that is (the Triumph usually has 30+ runners, any number of which are completely unexposed!). But the way this horse travels in his races, then quickens; the form he's shown in beating his major market rivals (except Degas Art, who will never beat Katchit in a true run race); and his course and distance form at Cheltenham, mark Katchit down as a strong bet in my book.He'll be taken on by Mountain and Lounaos for favouritism on the day, and I wouldn't advise rushing to grab a price on Katchit right now (he may be longer than his current 13/2 on the day), but I think he is the bet. (By the way, with the exception of Lounaos, the Irish are weak this year. This horse is, in my view, the chief threat to Katchit.)---------------------------------SYSTEM ANGLE: Aintree Early Bird!---------------------------------This may sound like more profound tosh from the TTS mouth, but - believe it or not - the Aintree Grand National is one of the best stats races in the year!And today, I'm going to share with you why, and my thoughts on the shortlist at this time.First of all the 'why'. The Grand National is a unique test for a horse in a number of ways:- No other race has so many horses lining up - No other race is run over such an extreme distance - No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception of races at the track of course) - No other race offers such much prize money and kudos (attracting some very classy horses) - No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace from the outset - No French race is run over anything like this distance (French breds don't stay the trip!)The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic. This means that we're looking for:- a proven stayer (won over 3m+); - a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last two seasons), and at least into his third seasonjumping; - a horse that has won in a field of at least 12; - a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his best (aged 8-12); - a horse in the handicap proper (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 or more - this is tricky as theweights are yet to be published); - a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or better); - a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close, none have won);and, - Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've been hurdling!); and, - Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fencesThere, its not rocket science is it!So, by using these factors, we quickly cut the Grand National field of 119 down to size. (Actually, at this stage of the season, I usually allow one of the above form criteria to be broken. So a horse can still win in a field of 12+ say before April. However, a horse will still be 7 if he is now, so misses the cut; a French bred will still be a French bred, so misses the cut, etc.).Applying the criteria above manually (so forgive any mistakes I may have made), I believe we are left with a (very) short list of eight horses. They're listed below in no particular order, along with any comments:Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weightGraphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer who went close with Mely MossNaunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit. Entered in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th FebCloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland, has been running in hurdles, but may have to carry too much weight?Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National '06Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races prominently and jumps well, so will give a run for money. Doubtful stayer though, alas.Numbersixvalverde - Last year's winner, and been racing in hurdles since. Handicapper will probably make it very difficult for last year's hero to repeat the feat.Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cross country race at Punchestown last weekend.From these, I would want to be with Point Barrow (16/1), Graphic Approach (100/1), Naunton Brook(40/1), and Dun Doire (16/1).I'll bring a revised view nearer the time, when other horses may have qualified, and the weights have been released.------------------------------COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS------------------------------The main reason for the delay in sending out this newsletter is that I have been slavishly labouring on my new project, TrainerFlatStats. As the name suggests, its the same concept but for the flat season beginning in March.I've really enjoyed the feedback from you,dear readers, over the course of the winter, and some of the comments you've made deserved to be shared with a wider audience. For this reason, there will be a blog feature on the flat site, which will replace my periodic newsletters.The content there will of course be much more current, and - best of all - it will be fully interactive, meaning you can share your thoughts with other readers. [Please keep them clean!]More on TFS in the next newsletter-------------THE TTS JOKE-------------I hope this doesn't apply to any of you, dear readers.!The chronic horse player paused before taking his place at the betting windows, and offered up a fervent prayer to his Maker. "Blessed Lord," he muttered with intense sincerity, "I know you don't approve of my gambling, but this once, Lord, just this once, please let me break even. I need the money so badly."-------------------------------------TOMORROW'S TRAINERTRACKSTATS RUNNERS-------------------------------------Below are tomorrow's TTS qualifiers, subject to being 14/1 or shorter in the market:Huntingdon 1.40 Old Benny Four For A Laugh 2.10 Anshabil 2.40 Nenuphar Collonges 3.40 Golden Feather 4.40 Rose Of The Shires Southern ExitTaunton 2.20 Farmers Lad Oncle Bul 2.50 Be Be King Rare Gold Rowlands Dream 3.20 Magical Quest
Article Source: http://www.content.onlypunjab.com
Matt Bisogno is an avid horseracing fan, and dedicates much of his time to thorough research of UK trainer and horse patterns. His racing guides for both flat and jumps have shown a profit for the last six seasons, and his horseracing newsletters have gotten him an international following.
www.trainertrackstats.com/newsletters
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